Ceratitis capitata (Wied. y la sostenibilidad de Mangifera indica L. para la exportación desde Ecuador

Abstract

CLIMEX model version 3 was used to determine the potential distribution of Mangifera indica (Mango) and Ceratitis capitata in Ecuador, under current climate conditions and a climate change scenario A1B-2030. Then, by overlapping both potential distribution maps, potential production areas of mango for export were identified. A first cycle of sustainability assessment of farming systems having Mango for export was then made on these potential production areas. MESMIS framework was used for sustainability assessment. For the current potential distribution of C. capitata, it was estimated that 47.73% of the country area has very favorable climate conditions for establishment of C. capitata throughout the year (EI>30) especially in the coastal region; it is also estimated that 47.61% of country area has less favorable climate conditions for establishment of C. capitata throughout the year (EI<30), and 4.65% has null probability of establishment of C. capitata (EI = 0). Regarding the potential distribution of Ceratitis capitata in Ecuador under a climate change scenario A1B-2030, it was estimated that 33.03% of the country area has suitable climate conditions for C. capitata establishment throughout the year (EI>30); 62.17% of the country area has less favorable climate conditions for C. capitata establishment throughout the year (EI<30) and 4.80% has a null probability for establishment of C. capitata (EI = 0). For the current potential distribution of Mangifera indica in Ecuador, it was estimated that 36.91%, 51.17% and 11.92 % of Ecuador area have climate conditions which are very favorable (EI>30), especially in the coastal region; less favorable (EI<30) and areas with null probability (EI = 0) for mango establishment throughout the year, respectively. With regard to the potential distribution of M. indica in Ecuador under a climate change scenario (A1B-2030), it was estimated that 34.80% of the country area have very favorable climate conditions for M. indica establishment throughout the year (EI>30); 49.49% has less favorable climate conditions for C. capitata establishment throughout the year (EI<30), and 21.70% of the country area has null probability for establishment of M. indica (EI = 0). After overlapping the actual potential distribution maps for both C. capitata and M. indica in Ecuador, it was determined that the current areas of potential distribution of Mango also have a high potential for C. capitata establishment. Assessment of sustainability of systems having Mango for export as the main crop identified 22 indicators included into the seven sustainability attributes considered in the MESMIS framework. The overall average value of the Sustainability Index was 0.50, which is in the middle range of sustainability. Indicators that obtained the very low and low levels in terms of sustainability, which are considered as the critical points were: transformed and processed products from Mango (0.25); fertilization according to soil analysis (0.19); access to technological innovations (0.30); dependence on external inputs (0.10); number of crops (species) (0.33); generation of knowledge and practices in the farm (0.20), and evolution of the number of exporters (0.10).

CLIMEX model version 3 was used to determine the potential distribution of Mangifera indica (Mango) and Ceratitis capitata in Ecuador, under current climate conditions and a climate change scenario A1B-2030. Then, by overlapping both potential distribution maps, potential production areas of mango for export were identified. A first cycle of sustainability assessment of farming systems having Mango for export was then made on these potential production areas. MESMIS framework was used for sustainability assessment. For the current potential distribution of C. capitata, it was estimated that 47.73% of the country area has very favorable climate conditions for establishment of C. capitata throughout the year (EI>30) especially in the coastal region; it is also estimated that 47.61% of country area has less favorable climate conditions for establishment of C. capitata throughout the year (EI<30), and 4.65% has null probability of establishment of C. capitata (EI = 0). Regarding the potential distribution of Ceratitis capitata in Ecuador under a climate change scenario A1B-2030, it was estimated that 33.03% of the country area has suitable climate conditions for C. capitata establishment throughout the year (EI>30); 62.17% of the country area has less favorable climate conditions for C. capitata establishment throughout the year (EI<30) and 4.80% has a null probability for establishment of C. capitata (EI = 0). For the current potential distribution of Mangifera indica in Ecuador, it was estimated that 36.91%, 51.17% and 11.92 % of Ecuador area have climate conditions which are very favorable (EI>30), especially in the coastal region; less favorable (EI<30) and areas with null probability (EI = 0) for mango establishment throughout the year, respectively. With regard to the potential distribution of M. indica in Ecuador under a climate change scenario (A1B-2030), it was estimated that 34.80% of the country area have very favorable climate conditions for M. indica establishment throughout the year (EI>30); 49.49% has less favorable climate conditions for C. capitata establishment throughout the year (EI<30), and 21.70% of the country area has null probability for establishment of M. indica (EI = 0). After overlapping the actual potential distribution maps for both C. capitata and M. indica in Ecuador, it was determined that the current areas of potential distribution of Mango also have a high potential for C. capitata establishment. Assessment of sustainability of systems having Mango for export as the main crop identified 22 indicators included into the seven sustainability attributes considered in the MESMIS framework. The overall average value of the Sustainability Index was 0.50, which is in the middle range of sustainability. Indicators that obtained the very low and low levels in terms of sustainability, which are considered as the critical points were: transformed and processed products from Mango (0.25); fertilization according to soil analysis (0.19); access to technological innovations (0.30); dependence on external inputs (0.10); number of crops (species) (0.33); generation of knowledge and practices in the farm (0.20), and evolution of the number of exporters (0.10).