Impacto del cambio climático en la característica bivariada de las sequías meteorológicas mediante funciones cópulas en la región andina peruana
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Authors
Salaverry Fognoli, Marcio Alfonso
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Abstract
El objetivo fue evaluar impacto del cambio climático en la característica bivariada de las sequías meteorológicas mediante las funciones cópulas en la región andina del Perú. Con datos de precipitación de 440 estaciones (1981 – 2019) se estimaron precipitaciones promedio en seis subregiones andinas obteniendo una serie de precipitaciones en cada una. En cada serie se identificaron eventos de sequías y se analizaron las variables duración e intensidad. Se utilizó el SPI – 3 para la identificación y análisis de las sequías meteorológicas. El periodo futuro bajo el contexto del cambio climático corresponde a 2025 – 2100, donde se trabajó con datos de precipitación de 38 modelos del CMIP6 en sus escenarios SSP2-4.5 y SSP5-8.5. Las variables de duración e intensidad de los eventos de sequías identificados en el periodo histórico y en el periodo futuro en el contexto del cambio climático fueron vinculados mediante las funciones cópulas. Se comparó el comportamiento bivariado de los eventos de sequías relacionados a los percentiles 5, 25, 50, 75 y 95, entre el periodo histórico y futuro. La comparación consistió en verificar el desplazamiento de la función cópula en cada uno de los percentiles del periodo futuro con respecto al de referencia o histórico. Las funciones cópula sirvieron como herramienta útil de análisis para predicción del comportamiento de las sequías meteorológicas en el contexto del impacto del cambio climático. Dentro de los hallazgos más relevantes se observa una intensificación de las sequías moderadas e incremento de la duración hacia el sur. Las sequías moderadas comenzarían a comportarse como sequías severas (sobrepasan el umbral de 1.5) como es el caso de la subregión SI_1OR, SI_3OC y SI_3OR. En el Flanco oriental en los extremos norte y sur (SI_1OR y SI_3OR) las sequías tienden a intensificarse y a extender su duración, mientras en la parte central (SI_2OR) las sequías severas bajan su intensidad y duración. Las sequías extremas muestran en general una tendencia a bajar su intensidad y duración; no obstante, aún permanecen sobre el umbral de sequías extremas. Caso excepcional se observa en la subregión SI_3OC, donde la duración tiene un aumento en 2.5 meses.
The objective was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the bivariate characteristic of meteorological droughts using copula functions in the Andean region of Peru. Using precipitation data from 440 stations (1981 – 2019). Average precipitation was estimated in six Andean subregions, obtaining a series of precipitation in each one. In each series, drought events were identified, and the duration and intensity variables were analyzed. SPI – 3 was used for the identification and analysis of meteorological droughts. The future period under the context of climate change corresponds to 2025 – 2100, where precipitation data from 38 CMIP6 models were used in their SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The variables of duration and intensity of the drought events identified in the historical period and in the future period in the context of climate change were linked by copula functions. The bivariate behavior of drought events related to different percentiles was compared between the historical and future periods. The comparison consisted of verifying the displacement of the copula function in each of the percentiles of the future period with respect to the reference or historical period. The copula functions worked as a useful analysis tool for predicting the behavior of meteorological droughts in the context of the impact of climate change. Among the most relevant findings, an intensification of moderate droughts and an increase in duration towards the south is observed. Moderate droughts would begin to behave like severe droughts (exceeding the threshold of 1.5) as is the case of the SI_1OR, SI_3OC, and SI_3OR subregions. In the eastern flank, at the northern and southern extremes (SI_1OR and SI_3OR), droughts tend to intensify and extend their duration, while in the central part (SI_2OR) severe droughts decrease in intensity and duration. Extreme droughts generally show a tendency to decrease in intensity and duration; however, they remain above the threshold of extreme droughts. An exceptional case is observed in the SI_3OC subregion, where the duration has increased by 2.5 months.
The objective was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the bivariate characteristic of meteorological droughts using copula functions in the Andean region of Peru. Using precipitation data from 440 stations (1981 – 2019). Average precipitation was estimated in six Andean subregions, obtaining a series of precipitation in each one. In each series, drought events were identified, and the duration and intensity variables were analyzed. SPI – 3 was used for the identification and analysis of meteorological droughts. The future period under the context of climate change corresponds to 2025 – 2100, where precipitation data from 38 CMIP6 models were used in their SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The variables of duration and intensity of the drought events identified in the historical period and in the future period in the context of climate change were linked by copula functions. The bivariate behavior of drought events related to different percentiles was compared between the historical and future periods. The comparison consisted of verifying the displacement of the copula function in each of the percentiles of the future period with respect to the reference or historical period. The copula functions worked as a useful analysis tool for predicting the behavior of meteorological droughts in the context of the impact of climate change. Among the most relevant findings, an intensification of moderate droughts and an increase in duration towards the south is observed. Moderate droughts would begin to behave like severe droughts (exceeding the threshold of 1.5) as is the case of the SI_1OR, SI_3OC, and SI_3OR subregions. In the eastern flank, at the northern and southern extremes (SI_1OR and SI_3OR), droughts tend to intensify and extend their duration, while in the central part (SI_2OR) severe droughts decrease in intensity and duration. Extreme droughts generally show a tendency to decrease in intensity and duration; however, they remain above the threshold of extreme droughts. An exceptional case is observed in the SI_3OC subregion, where the duration has increased by 2.5 months.
Description
Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina. Escuela de Posgrado. Maestría en
Recursos Hídricos
Keywords
Sequías meteorológicas
Citation
Date
2025
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